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The price of corrugated paper continues to rise, is the paper industry ushering in a turning point?
2019-12-04

    The purchase price of waste yellow paperboard market showed a slight upward trend. The corrugated base paper began to rise, and the trend has continued to this day. The average ex-factory price of corrugated paper was 3290 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.65% compared with the previous one. Compared with last year's high price, the price of corrugated paper has fallen sharply. However, the recent steady upward trend has inevitably made people suspect that its price has bottomed out and the industry has ushered in a turning point.


 

    The raw material of box board, corrugated and white board is waste paper, while the raw material of white cardboard is wood pulp. 100% downstream of corrugated paper is carton; 93% downstream of corrugated paper is carton; 70% downstream of white cardboard is carton, 20% is cardboard, 10% is paper bag; 90% downstream of white board is carton, 10% is lining Paper. The downstream of cartons and cartons are mainly export and domestic retail food, medicine, household appliances, daily necessities and other industries.

 

    From the perspective of consumption ratio, container board, corrugated base paper and uncoated printing and writing paper are the top three consumer types of paper and paperboard in my country. In 2018, the proportions of consumption of the three in total consumption were 22.46%, 21.2% and 16.77% respectively.

 

    From the perspective of consumption trends, the consumption ratio of box board, corrugated base paper and household paper is increasing, and the consumption ratio of uncoated printing and writing paper and newsprint has shown a long-term downward trend, but in recent years it has been relatively stable. The overall consumption ratio of coated paper keep stable.

 

     From 2009 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of national paper and paperboard production was 2.12%, and the average annual growth rate of consumption was 2.22%. Before 2010, the supply and demand of the paper industry showed a rapid growth trend. After 2010, the national paper and paperboard production and consumption growth slowed down significantly. In 2018, the national paper and paperboard production volume was 104.35 million tons, down 6.24% year-on-year, and the consumption volume was 104.39 million tons, down 4.20% year-on-year. The per capita annual consumption is generally increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2018, my country's per capita annual consumption of paper and cardboard was 75 kg.

 

    From the perspective of supply, the industry pattern of containerboard and corrugated paper is scattered. The CR4 of containerboard paper is 51%, and the CR4 of corrugated paper is 23%. The industry concentration of cardboard paper appears to be relatively high, but there are still many small businesses in practice, and it still needs time to integrate. However, with the tightening of foreign waste quotas, industry consolidation is expected to accelerate.

 

    On the one hand, once the waste paper raw materials are not enough, small enterprises may not be able to produce because they cannot obtain raw materials, and the industry can be cleared. Generally speaking, since the purchase of waste paper is mainly cash, waste paper packing stations will give priority to cooperation with large factories with sufficient cash, and the leader has a competitive advantage in grabbing raw materials.

 

    On the other hand, in addition to a relatively stable source of waste paper, leading paper companies still maintain a certain amount of external waste quota. At present, the price difference between national waste and US waste has risen to more than 1,000 yuan/ton. After the foreign waste quota is further tightened next year, domestic waste paper prices will continue to rise.

 

    According to the 2018 China Paper Yearbook data, the total production of corrugated base paper was 21.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.85%, and the output of container board was 21.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.06%. The growth rate of my country's corrugated base paper and box board production has fallen precipitously, so the supply has been greatly reduced. Under the situation of stricter environmental protection, and the price of paper continues to fall, a large number of small enterprises have suffered losses, causing small enterprises to withdraw from the industry competition.

 

    From the perspective of consumption, the drop in consumption is smaller than the drop in output. In 2018, the consumption of corrugated paper in my country was 22.13 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.64%, and the consumption of container board was 23.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.57%. Due to the rapid development of domestic e-commerce, the consumption demand for container board has been relatively strong in recent years, so the decline in container board consumption is less than that of corrugated paper.

 

    In terms of inventory, the inventory has dropped significantly, approaching the bottom area of 2016. As the current inventories of container board companies and corrugated paper companies are low, if demand is strong and prices are firm, companies have more incentives to increase inventory.

 

    Therefore, in the short term, the current overall inventory of corrugated cardboard in the downstream has declined, superimposing the industry peak season in the fourth quarter, and paper companies have successively issued price increase letters. From August to September of this year, domestic paper prices showed signs of bottoming out. Therefore, the profitability of the cardboard corrugated business of paper enterprises is expected to be better in the fourth quarter.

 

    In the medium and long term, however, the trade frictions that began in the second half of last year put pressure on the domestic economy and exports at the same time, resulting in a decline in industry demand, and there will still be relatively intensive new production capacity for containerboard corrugated paper in the next few years. If downstream demand continues to be sluggish and the industry's small and medium-sized production capacity clears less than expected, the price of containerboard corrugated paper will not rise sharply, but we need to pay close attention to the impact of the continued reduction of external waste quotas next year on the industrial chain.


    Hangzhou Yante Science And Technology Co.,Ltd.. is a high-tech enterprise in Hangzhou, mainly engaged in the research and development, production, sales and service of various intelligent testing instruments and automatic control equipment in the packaging, paper, printing, textile, cigarette, electromechanical, chemical and other industries. The company has 15 computer software copyright patents, 4 invention patents and utility model patents. It has a CMC measuring instrument manufacturing license and operates in accordance with the ISO9001 international quality management system. It is a new domestic professional testing instrument supplier with a strong sense of pioneering and innovation.

 

    We are dedicated to independent innovation in the field of testing instruments and meters. We develop and produce special testing instruments with advanced technology, high quality and low price. The main products are whiteness meter, colorimeter, compression testing machine, horizontal (vertical) paper Computer tensile tester, smoothness tester and box compression tester are used in papermaking, packaging, chemical, printing and other industries.


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