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Analysis of the market status and development trend of China's paper industry in 2019
2019-11-04

    As an important basic raw material industry, the paper industry occupies an important position in the national economy. The paper industry is related to the country’s economy, culture, production, and national defense. Its products are used in many fields of culture, education, science and technology, and the national economy. Today, Hangzhou Yante Science And Technology Co.,Ltd.will give you an analysis of the status quo and development trend of China's paper industry market.


    After the financial crisis, the sales revenue of enterprises above designated size in the paper industry has been increasing year by year, but the growth rate has fluctuated greatly. However, in 2018, affected by supply-side reforms, environmental protection policies and downstream demand, the paper industry revenue fell for the first time. Starting from the definition of the industry, exploring the migration path of the paper industry based on the dual dimensions of machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing and paper products. The study found that the paper and paperboard manufacturing industry continues to concentrate in the coastal areas of Guangdong, Shandong and Zhejiang, while the paper product industry migrates to inland areas. The regional distribution has its own focus.


    Regarding the definition of "papermaking industry", according to the definition of "papermaking and paper product industry" in the National Economic Classification, the papermaking and paper product industry includes three categories: pulp manufacturing, papermaking and paper product manufacturing.

 

    In a broad sense, the paper industry includes the manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products, etc.; that is, the paper industry actually exists in the form of an industrial chain, that is, "processing and producing pulp-using pulp to make paper-using paper or cardboard for further processing" A complete link. In a narrow sense, the paper industry only refers to the manufacture of paper and paperboard made of paper pulp or other raw materials (such as slag wool, mica, asbestos, etc.) suspended in a fluid, which are molded by paper machines or other equipment, or manually operated. , Namely machine-made paper and cardboard manufacturing, handmade paper manufacturing and processed paper manufacturing.


 

    Analysis of the development status of China's paper industry-the revenue of the paper industry fell for the first time, but the industry's prosperity is still high

 

  After the financial crisis, the operating conditions of the paper industry fluctuated greatly. From 2008 to 2011, after the financial crisis, the performance of the paper industry rebounded significantly under the stimulus of 4 trillion yuan, and the prices of major paper types stabilized and rebounded. At this stage, the sales revenue of enterprises above designated size increased rapidly, with the highest growth rate reaching 39.6%. ; From 2012 to 2017, in the context of the successive expansion of production capacity by enterprises, the downstream demand growth of the paper and paper products industry has slowed down, with overcapacity, and the overall economic efficiency of the industry has slowed down, fluctuating around 5%.

 

    According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2018, my country's paper and paper products enterprises above designated size achieved main business revenue of 1372.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%; total profits were 76.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.49%. Analysis of the reason for this situation is due to the following reasons.

 

    First, from the perspective of supply, the paper industry has entered a new round of capacity release cycle after experiencing the 2016-2017 industry dividend; in addition, the import volume of raw paper from neighboring Asian countries increased significantly in 2017, and the total annual import volume increased to 650,000 tons, of which the import volume reached 310,000 tons in the fourth quarter when the price of domestic corrugated paper was high. Affected by this, domestic paper prices fell, affecting product sales revenue in 2018.

 

    Second, from the perspective of demand, under the influence of the Sino-US trade war, exports of the downstream packaging industry in the paper industry are expected to be affected, and the willingness to purchase packaging is low; at the same time, domestic consumption is sluggish, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2018 is less than 10% , Packaging orders are also affected.

2006-2018 my country's papermaking and paper products enterprises above designated size business revenue, total profit statistics and growth

 

China paper industry industry prosperity index is still in a relatively high range

 

Judging from the industry prosperity index of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2009 alone, the prosperity index of my country's paper and paper products industry was below 100, which is in a downturn; since 2010, the prosperity index of my country's paper and paper products industry has always been higher than 100, all of which are in a good state. state. However, it is worth noting that since 2018, the prosperity index of the paper and paper products industry has gradually declined. In the first quarter of 2018, the prosperity index was 130, and the prosperity index at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018 was 118.6, but the industry prosperity index is still in a relatively high range.


Affected by supply-side reforms and environmental protection policies, the number of loss-making companies has increased

 

    Affected by supply-side reforms and environmental protection policies, the advantages of leading companies have become increasingly prominent. However, some companies are happy and some are worried. Some companies cannot cope with the pressure of environmental protection and the suspension of production lines. Coupled with the slowdown of downstream demand and the impact of the Sino-US trade war, companies are facing losses. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of enterprises above designated size in China's paper and paper products industry increased to 6,704 in 2018, and the number of loss-making enterprises increased significantly to 1,045; the proportion of loss-making enterprises increased to 15.59%.

 

    In addition to the loss-making situation, some companies are overwhelmed and have closed down and went bankrupt. Such as Zhejiang Fuyang Jinchang Paper Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Fuyang Jinchang Paper Co., Ltd., Heda Paper in Guangxi, and Huixin Company in Shandong.


Analysis on the Migration Path of China's Paper Industry

 

1. Migration path of China's paper and paperboard manufacturing industry: focus on the Guangdong, Shandong and Zhejiang regions

 

    In the paper manufacturing industry, the output of handmade paper and processed paper is relatively small, mainly for machine-made paper and cardboard manufacturing. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the change trend of China's machine-made paper and paperboard output from 2006 to 2018 is consistent with the income change trend of the paper industry, production and sales are synchronized, and supply and demand are tightening; from 2006 to 2011, production grew rapidly; in 2012 After that, the output growth rate dropped significantly; in 2018, the output grew negatively.


    Comparing the production of machine-made paper and paperboard in various provinces and cities across the country in 2011 and 2018, it is found that paper and paperboard manufacturing companies are mainly concentrated in the three coastal areas of Guangdong, Shandong and Zhejiang, but the ranking has changed, and the manufacturing center has been transferred from Shandong to Guangdong; Regional concentration has also increased. The concentration of the top three regions in 2011 was 43.98%, and in 2018 it increased to 51.43%.

 

    In addition, paper and paperboard manufacturing companies in Henan and Hebei have moved out one after another, and their output has declined significantly; Henan Province is the most prominent, with 10.71% of its output in 2010, ranking fourth in the country, and its output in 2018 was only 3.25%. This is mainly due to the fact that there are few large groups in the paper industry and few strong companies in the paper industry in Henan. Most of the paper companies are small, with an average size of 80,000 t/a. Under the pressure of the Sino-US trade war and environmental protection policies, companies cannot maintain normalcy. Production status: In 2017, Henan's paper and paperboard output was 6.975 million tons, and the output was reduced by more than 3 million tons in just one year.

 

    In 2011, the distribution of machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing enterprises was relatively scattered, and both inland and coastal areas, such as Shandong, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Henan and Hebei, etc.; and in 2018, the output mainly came from Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Fujian regions are all concentrated in coastal areas. This is mainly due to the consideration of the three major sources of upstream pulp for papermakingdomestic wood pulp, domestic waste paper pulp and imported pulp. That is, wood pulp is mainly produced in Shandong, domestic waste paper pulp is mainly concentrated in East China and South China, and imported paper pulp from coastal areas is available. Advantages such as convenient transportation and cost saving.

 

2. The migration path of the paper product industry: migration to inland areas

 

    Under the multiple influences of the upstream supply of paper and cardboard manufacturing enterprises, the downstream consumption demand, and the environmental protection policy itself, the output changes of paper products show cyclical characteristics. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2006 to 2010, the output of paper products increased rapidly for five consecutive years; after the first decline in output in 2011, the output from 2012 to 2016 increased year by year for five consecutive years; from 2017 to 2018, the output began to decline again .

 

    Based on the above analysis, three time nodes, namely the bottom of the valley and the peak of the valley, which are 2011, 2016, and 2018, were selected to compare the output of paper products in various provinces and cities across the country to explore the path of industrial migration.

 

    First, no matter how the total output of paper products changes, Guangdong Province always ranks first in the output of paper products in the country, accounting for 18.50% in 2018; Zhejiang Province ranks second, accounting for 11.90% in 2018.

 

    Second, comparing 2011 (the bottom of the valley) and 2016 (the bottom of the valley), it is found that in the context of the overall improvement of the industry, the regional concentration of the paper product industry has declined, and the market shares of Guangdong and Zhejiang have dropped significantly, while Henan, The market share of most regions such as Hunan and Hubei has increased, and the paper product manufacturing enterprises in Henan are particularly prominent.

 

    Third, comparing 2011 and 2018 (two troughs), it is found that under the background of the overall situation of the paper product industry, the path of industrial migration is more obvious. The paper product manufacturing industry has moved from Shandong and Hebei to Hubei, Sichuan and Hunan. As the inland areas shift, paper products companies in Shandong and Hebei are small in scale and are more vulnerable to shocks.

 

Comparison of the origin of paper and paperboard manufacturing and paper product manufacturing

 

    In addition, compared with the concentration of paper and cardboard manufacturing enterprises in 2018, it is found that Shandong is a major paper-making province, but the manufacturing of paper products is generally developed. On the contrary, the paper product manufacturing industry in the inland areas has developed better. This is mainly because The demand for paper products in the inland areas is greater. The paper and cardboard are transported to the inland areas and then processed into paper products to directly supply the needs of the inland areas, reducing transportation costs and accelerating the inventory cycle.

 

Analysis on the Development Trend of China's Paper Industry

 

1. Supply and demand trend: increasing demand and optimizing supply structure

 

    As an important basic raw material industry, the paper industry occupies an important position in the national economy. The paper industry is related to the country's economy, culture, production, and national defense. Its products are used in many fields of culture, education, science and technology, and the national economy. As the economy picks up, demand for paper from all walks of life will pick up. From the perspective of supply, with the advancement of environmental protection measures and supply-side reforms, the phased and structural surplus of the paper industry will be significantly improved, and the supply structure will continue to be optimized. In the future, the supply and demand of the paper industry will show a tightening trend.

 

2. Product trend: papermaking is a traditional industry, but the products are no longer traditional

 

    From the perspective of historical development and public perception, the paper industry is a traditional industry; although technology and equipment continue to improve product quality and meet the diversified and personalized needs of the market, the printing paper, packaging paper, The product form and function of major bulk products such as household paper have not undergone substantial changes. However, with the continuous increase of the sense of innovation, paper and cardboard products will not only appear directly in life in traditional forms, but can also exist as functional materials, such as decorative paper used in composite wood floors in the building materials industry, and airplane high-speed rails. Used aramid honeycomb paper, filter paper for automobiles and air purifiers, etc. In the future, the application fields of the products of the paper industry will be more extensive, and the product types will be more abundant.

 

3. Raw material supply trends: companies go overseas to make pulp and paper

 

    In view of the serious dependence of the domestic paper industry on overseas raw materials, and the limited import of waste paper, which has caused raw materials to be restricted in overseas markets, many companies have begun to deploy overseas production capacity to gain more room for development. For example, some leading companies have already carried out a large number of overseas production capacity layout or construction of raw material bases to obtain sufficient raw material supply by virtue of their significant capital strength advantages. Among them, Nine Dragons Paper, Lee & Man Paper, Shanying Paper, and Sun Paper are all accelerating their overseas deployment. They are able to obtain cost by deploying production capacity in regions with abundant forest resources and low labor costs in Southeast Asia, such as Laos, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Advantages; through the layout in the United States in order to obtain high-quality external waste raw materials. In addition, Hengan International, Cotai APP, Asia Pacific Senbo, China Paper, Zhenglong Paper and other companies are also accelerating overseas production capacity deployment. It is expected that the overseas production capacity deployment of domestic paper companies will continue in the future. In summary, more and more companies will choose to invest and build factories overseas, and part of China's paper industry will move overseas.


     Hangzhou Yante Science And Technology Co.,Ltd.. is a high-tech enterprise in Hangzhou, mainly engaged in the research and development, production, sales and service of various intelligent testing instruments and automatic control equipment in the packaging, paper, printing, textile, cigarette, electromechanical, chemical and other industries. The company has 15 computer software copyright patents, 4 invention patents and utility model patents. It has a CMC measuring instrument manufacturing license and operates in accordance with the ISO9001 international quality management system. It is a new domestic professional testing instrument supplier with a strong sense of pioneering and innovation.

 

    We are dedicated to independent innovation in the field of testing instruments and meters. We develop and produce special testing instruments with advanced technology, high quality and low price. The main products are whiteness meter, colorimeter, compression testing machine, horizontal (vertical) paper Computer tensile tester, smoothness tester and box compression tester are used in papermaking, packaging, chemical, printing and other industries.

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